U.S. Pork Exports Steady in September with Value Record for Mexico; Beef Exports Lowest Since Mid-2020

USDA has released red meat export data for September, which was delayed due to the recent government shutdown. As compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), September data showed a fairly steady performance for U.S. pork exports, matching year-ago value while down slightly in volume. But September beef exports were the lowest in more than five years, with shipments to China effectively halted and exports to other Asian markets also trending lower year-over-year.

“We are encouraged by the robust and resilient global demand for U.S. pork – especially in Mexico, but also in a broad range of international markets,” said USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “The situation is obviously much more challenging on the beef side, primarily due to the ongoing impasse with the Chinese government, which continues to ignore its commitments under the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement. U.S. industry losses continue to mount as a result of this lockout, and relief simply cannot come soon enough.”

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) is conducting a Section 301 investigation of China’s implementation of the U.S.-China Economic and Trade Agreement, popularly known as the Phase One Agreement, with a public hearing set for Tuesday, Dec. 16. USMEF submitted comments to USTR detailing China’s failure to meet its Phase One commitments on red meat trade.

Pork exports totaled 233,816 metric tons (mt) in September, down 2% from a year ago. Export  value was steady at $683.9 million, highlighted by the highest value on record for Mexico (nearly $260 million). The value of pork muscle cut exports trended higher in September ($586.2 million, up 1%), but pork variety meat exports declined, due in part to China’s retaliatory tariffs. Excluding China, September pork and pork variety meat exports were 4% above last year.

Through the first three quarters of the year, pork exports were 3% below the record pace of 2024 in both volume (2.16 million mt) and value ($6.16 billion), and down just 1% when excluding China. Exports to leading market Mexico, and to Central America, are poised to reach new annual highs. January-September shipments also increased year-over-year to Colombia, the Caribbean, Hong Kong and Vietnam.

September beef exports were just 80,835 mt, down 22% from a year ago and the lowest since June 2020. Export value was $660.9 million, also down 22% and the lowest since February 2021. Even when excluding China, beef export volume fell 11% year-over-year, due in part to lower production.

January-September beef exports totaled 856,023 mt, down 11% from a year ago (and down 4% when excluding China). Export value was down 10% to $7.03 billion. Exports trended higher to leading value market Korea and to Central and South America, Hong Kong, the Philippines, the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas and Africa. But these gains were more than offset by the steep decline to China and lower shipments to Japan, Mexico, Canada and Taiwan.

Led by growth in Honduras and Guatemala, pork exports to Central America continued to shine in September, climbing 5% to 13,514 mt, while value increased 6% to $44.5 million. Through September, exports to the region soared 20% above last year’s record pace in volume (131,771 mt) and were 23% higher in value ($422 million).

For the third consecutive month, September pork exports to South Korea trended higher than a year ago, with shipments up 12% in volume (11,311 mt) and 7% in value ($38.1 million). January-September shipments to Korea were down 7% at 158,482 mt, with value 12% below last year’s record pace at $511.7 million.

Other January-September results from U.S. pork exports include:

• Although pork exports to Colombia slowed in both August and September, January-September shipments remained 6% above last year’s record pace in volume (95,311 mt) and 8% higher in value ($275.5 million).

• Led by a doubling of shipments to Cuba and larger volumes to the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, Bermuda, Jamaica and French West Indies, pork exports to the Caribbean increased 2% from the first three quarters of last year to 92,457 mt, while value was up 6% to $284 million. Demand has remained strong in the Dominican Republic, the region’s largest destination for U.S. pork, but exports were modestly lower in both volume (66,313 mt, down 5%) and value ($195.9 million, down 2%).

• Pressured by a weak yen and other headwinds, January-September pork exports to Japan were 9% below last year at 235,083 mt, while value fell 12% to $937.4 million. Japan recently suspended pork imports from Spain due to findings of African swine fever (ASF), which could create growth opportunities for the U.S. industry.

• ASF-related opportunities could also emerge in the ASEAN region, where Malaysia and the Philippines have also temporarily suspended imports of Spanish pork. January-September shipments to the ASEAN were 8% below last year at 56,409 mt, while value fell just 1% to $132.2 million.

• While most U.S. pork plants are eligible to ship to China, retaliatory tariffs and uncertainty have weighed on 2025 exports. China’s total tariff on U.S. pork and most variety meat was 57% for much of this year (and prohibitively high at 172% in April-May), before recently being reduced to 47%. China’s Most Favored Nation tariff rate is 12%. China has also retaliated on imports from Canada and the European Union this year, while U.S. pork has been subject to an extra 25% Section 232 retaliation since 2018. Through September, U.S. exports to China – the majority of which are pork variety meat – fell 18% from a year ago (when the total tariff rate was 37%) at 278,065 mt, while value declined 19% to $650.6 million. China’s pork production is also record-large and consumer confidence is lacking.  

• September pork export value equated to $62.29 per head slaughtered, down 4% from a year ago, while the January-September average was $65.17, down 1.5% from last year’s record pace. Exports accounted for 27.8% of total September pork production and 24% of muscle cuts, down from 29.6% and 25.4%, respectively, in September 2024. The January-September ratios were 29.7% of total production and 25.9% for muscle cuts, each down slightly from a year ago.

Beef export volume to Central America also trended lower in September (1,482 mt, down 27%) but value still increased nearly 10% to $16.4 million. Led by growth in Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras and Belize, January-September exports to the region increased 2% year-over-year to 16,002 mt, while export value soared 31% to $150.6 million. With an entire quarter remaining, export value to Central America is already approaching 2024’s full-year record of $160.2 million.

September beef exports to Mexico increased 5% from a year ago in value ($117.3 million) despite a 14% decline in volume (16,862 mt). Through the first three quarters of the year, exports to Mexico were down 11% to 154,694 mt, while value fell just 4% to $974 million. Although Brazil’s beef exports to Mexico peaked in June at about 16,000 mt, the presence of Brazilian beef remains substantial. The most recent data available is from November, with Brazil’s shipments to Mexico still approaching 9,000 mt. Brazil is now the largest supplier of beef muscle cuts to Mexico.    

Other January-September results from U.S. beef exports include:

• September beef exports to Canada increased 2% from a year ago to 7,661 mt, while value climbed 13% to $73.7 million. January-September exports to Canada were 7% below last year in volume (71,858 mt) and 6% lower in value ($659.8 million).

• Beef exports to the Philippines trended higher in September, increasing 76% from a year ago to 1,815 mt, while value jumped 60% to $15.2 million. January-September exports increased 20% in volume (13,565 mt) and 10% in value ($106 million). Exports to the ASEAN were substantially lower in both volume (22,513 mt, down 27%) and value ($177 million, down 31%), but this was due in large part to lack of access to Indonesia. With shipments to Indonesia recently resuming, exports to the region could perform better moving forward. However, import licenses for 2026 have not been allocated and the additional U.S. beef plants have not yet been added to Indonesia’s eligible facility list, so uncertainty continues for next year.

• September beef exports to the Caribbean achieved a 7% increase in value ($20.5 million) despite a 10% decline in volume (2,220 mt). January-September results followed a similar trend, falling 5% to 23,151 mt but still climbing 12% in value to $231.3 million, with value growth led by the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica.

• Beef exports to Africa were also lower in September (870 mt, down 10%) but still increased 7% in value to $1.6 million. Led by growth in Cote D’Ivoire, Morocco and Gabon, January-September exports to Africa increased 11% to 9,637 mt, while value climbed 30% to $16 million. Beef variety meats account for 94% of total export volume to Africa and about 80% of export value.

• Although Japan remains the leading volume market for U.S. beef exports, September shipments declined 12% from a year ago to 17,018 mt, while value fell 16% to $121.8 million. Through September, exports to Japan were down 4% from a year ago at 181,487 mt, valued at $1.34 billion (down 8%).

• September beef exports to China sank to just 556 mt, down 96% from a year ago, valued at $2.5 million (down 98%). Through September, exports to China fell 57% to 57,050 mt, valued at $486.7 million (down 58%). China is now Australia’s largest destination for grain-fed beef exports, with shipments to China up 55% to 132,000 mt from January through November.

• September beef export value equated to $337.21 per head of fed slaughter, down 18% from a year ago, while the January-September average was down 5% to $393.25. Exports accounted for 10.9% of total September beef production and 8.8% of muscle cuts, down significantly from the respective September 2024 ratios of 13.8% and 11.3%. For January through September, exports accounted for 12.9% of total beef production and 10.7% for muscle cuts, each down about one percentage point from a year ago.

September lamb exports above year-ago, but lowest of 2025

September exports of U.S. lamb muscle cuts totaled 130 mt, up 67% from last year’s low volume but the smallest in 12 months. Export value was $807,000, up 64% but also the lowest since last September. Led by growth in Mexico, the Caribbean and Canada, January-September exports increased 47% from a year ago to 2,179 mt, valued at $11.7 million (up 31%). Exports also increased to Costa Rica and Panama.

Complete January-September export results for U.S. pork, beef and lamb are available from USMEF’s statistics web page. 

For questions, please contact Joe Schuele or call 303-547-0030.

NOTES:

• Export statistics refer to both muscle cuts and variety meat, unless otherwise noted.

• One metric ton (mt) = 2,204.622 pounds.

• U.S. pork and beef currently face retaliatory duties in China. In February 2020, China announced a duty exclusion process that allows importers to apply for relief from duties imposed in response to U.S. Section 301 duties. When an application is successful, the rate for U.S. beef can decline to the MFN rate of 12% and the rate for U.S. pork can decline to 37% (the MFN rate plus the 25% Section 232 retaliatory duty, which remains in place). But China imposed an additional 10% retaliatory duty on U.S. pork and beef on March 10, 2025, and additional retaliatory duties were announced in April 2025. China’s new retaliatory duties were first announced at 34% but were later increased to 84% and further increased to 125%. The additional tariffs pushed China’s effective duty rate on U.S. pork and pork variety meat to 172% and the rate for beef and beef variety meat increased to 147%. These rates were temporarily lowered to 57% for pork and 32% for beef on May 14, 2025, when the U.S. and China agreed to a temporary de-escalation to allow for further negotiations. The rates were further lowered to 47% for pork and 22% for beef on Nov. 10, 2025.

• Beginning March 4, 2025, U.S. sausages entering Canada were subject to a 25% retaliatory duty. This duty was removed effective Sept. 1, 2025.