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The current quota controversy with Russia may act as a stimulus to Russian WTO membership. Russia’s imposition of import quotas for meat and poultry was originally inspired by the EU response to the resurgence of Russian grain imports. Strict import quotas for grain were imposed by the EU on January 1, and the new regimen means that Russia’s grain exports will fall from about 5 million mt in 2002 to 500,000 mt in 2003. The EU could not have imposed this draconian protectionist measure on a WTO member. In the 1980s, the Soviet Union imported an average 37 million mt of grain each year. This year, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan together will export more than 25 million mt of grain. Russia offers little in the way of subsidies to its farmers and its grain sector is developing swiftly, so it has much to gain from WTO membership.

WTO membership is expected to force Russia to reform its creaking customs service, liberalize its energy industry and improve its insurance system.