USMEF Board of Directors Meeting & International Buyers Conference, May 2...
Brochure, Registration Form and Sponsors Unofficial Translation of NOM - NMX-FF-081-SCFI-2003
Newly Published Mexican Norm Applicable to Pork Products, Carcasses, and Pork Fresh-grading.
Below is the English language translation of the legal documents filed by the U.S. coalition consisting of USMEF, the National Pork Producers Council and the American Meat Institute on behalf of the U.S. pork industry regarding Mexico's pork antidumping investigation. This filing was presented to the Mexican Ministry of Economics on March 19, 2003, and the full English translation is now available here.
U.S. Pork Coalition Brief - English Translation
This information is intended for USMEF Members ONLY. Please do not distribute.
Safeguard Casts Shadow Over Beef Trade
Importers and exporters will carefully scrutinize Japan's monthly beef import figures from April onward due to the threat of the implementation of the beef safeguard in the early fall. Japan imported 56,610 tons of beef in March, bringing the Japanese fiscal year (JFY — April 2002-March 2003) total to 533,819 tons. The 2002 total represents a 12% reduction from JFY 2001 imports of 607,540 tons. Japan imported a record 738,415 tons in its pre-BSE 2000 fiscal year.
If the safeguard is triggered, Japan will increase the beef import duty from the current 38.5 percent to 50 percent. The tariff snapback provision comes into force when total imports in a quarter exceed the level of imports in the previous year's corresponding quarter by 17%. Because beef imports suffered in the spring of 2002 due to BSE, and a relatively strong recovery in imports has occurred over the last 12 months, hitting the trigger level is increasingly likely. Japan maintains separate safeguards for chilled and frozen beef imports.
The chilled safeguard will be difficult to avoid due to the need for continuous shipping. Japanese chilled beef imports averaged 91,468 tons during the first quarters of Japan's pre-BSE fiscal years 1999, 2000 and 2001. The trigger level for JFY 2003 first quarter chilled beef imports is 63,564 tons. Assuming imported beef consumption in Japan has now rebounded above 80% of pre-BSE levels – and there are indications that the recovery may be higher for chilled beef imports – it is likely that the safeguard will be imposed from August 1 following the release of import data.
There is more uncertainty surrounding the frozen safeguard. Higher beef prices, tighter supplies, and a continued hangover from the port strike are thought to have tempered U.S. shipments this spring. Delivery and clearance schedules are being altered to lower imports during the April–June period; for example, Japan's imports of frozen beef in March were more than 200 percent higher than a year earlier. Some traders assign an even chance that the frozen beef safeguard will be triggered, while others are more sanguine about the ability of Japan's beef importers to structure shipments and arrivals to avert the higher tariff.
The trade is unanimous, however, that if imposed the safeguard will be restrictive and costly. Simulation studies by Australian economists suggest that losses to consumers from higher beef prices far outweigh gains to Japanese producers realized through the higher protective duty. The safeguard also threatens a delicate but strengthening recovery in imported and U.S. beef demand. Japan's recovery is the lynchpin of U.S. beef exports to Asia this year, as other Asian markets are weak due to high prices and the SARS outbreak.
Brochure, Registration Form and Sponsors Unofficial Translation of NOM - NMX-FF-081-SCFI-2003
Newly Published Mexican Norm Applicable to Pork Products, Carcasses, and Pork Fresh-grading.
Below is the English language translation of the legal documents filed by the U.S. coalition consisting of USMEF, the National Pork Producers Council and the American Meat Institute on behalf of the U.S. pork industry regarding Mexico's pork antidumping investigation. This filing was presented to the Mexican Ministry of Economics on March 19, 2003, and the full English translation is now available here.
U.S. Pork Coalition Brief - English Translation
This information is intended for USMEF Members ONLY. Please do not distribute.
Safeguard Casts Shadow Over Beef Trade
Importers and exporters will carefully scrutinize Japan’s monthly beef import figures from April onward due to the threat of the implementation of the beef safeguard in the early fall. Japan imported 56,610 tons of beef in March, bringing the Japanese fiscal year (JFY — April 2002-March 2003) total to 533,819 tons. The 2002 total represents a 12% reduction from JFY 2001 imports of 607,540 tons. Japan imported a record 738,415 tons in its pre-BSE 2000 fiscal year.
If the safeguard is triggered, Japan will increase the beef import duty from the current 38.5 percent to 50 percent. The tariff snapback provision comes into force when total imports in a quarter exceed the level of imports in the previous year’s corresponding quarter by 17%. Because beef imports suffered in the spring of 2002 due to BSE, and a relatively strong recovery in imports has occurred over the last 12 months, hitting the trigger level is increasingly likely. Japan maintains separate safeguards for chilled and frozen beef imports.
The chilled safeguard will be difficult to avoid due to the need for continuous shipping. Japanese chilled beef imports averaged 91,468 tons during the first quarters of Japan’s pre-BSE fiscal years 1999, 2000 and 2001. The trigger level for JFY 2003 first quarter chilled beef imports is 63,564 tons. Assuming imported beef consumption in Japan has now rebounded above 80% of pre-BSE levels – and there are indications that the recovery may be higher for chilled beef imports – it is likely that the safeguard will be imposed from August 1 following the release of import data.
There is more uncertainty surrounding the frozen safeguard. Higher beef prices, tighter supplies, and a continued hangover from the port strike are thought to have tempered U.S. shipments this spring. Delivery and clearance schedules are being altered to lower imports during the April–June period; for example, Japan’s imports of frozen beef in March were more than 200 percent higher than a year earlier. Some traders assign an even chance that the frozen beef safeguard will be triggered, while others are more sanguine about the ability of Japan’s beef importers to structure shipments and arrivals to avert the higher tariff.
The trade is unanimous, however, that if imposed the safeguard will be restrictive and costly. Simulation studies by Australian economists suggest that losses to consumers from higher beef prices far outweigh gains to Japanese producers realized through the higher protective duty. The safeguard also threatens a delicate but strengthening recovery in imported and U.S. beef demand. Japan’s recovery is the lynchpin of U.S. beef exports to Asia this year, as other Asian markets are weak due to high prices and the SARS outbreak.