USDA estimates 2007 Chinese Pork Production Down by 9.2 Percent
USDA estimates 2007 Chinese Pork Production Down by 9.2 Percent
USDA has published its official estimate of China’s 2007 pork production, when blue ear disease, torrid economic growth, a trough in the hog cycle, and high feed prices combined to create havoc for China’s hog raising sector, the world’s largest. USDA-Beijing estimated that Chinese pork production dropped 9.2 percent from the 2006 level of 45.825 million metric tons (101 billion pounds), to 41.609 million metric tons (91.7 billion pounds). More significantly, USDA disagreed with the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture’s (MOA) official estimate that the 2007 pork production of 51.2 million metric tons (112.8 billion pounds) had amounted to only a 1.5 percent reduction from 2006 levels. USDA noted that it was unlikely that a 1.5 percent reduction in pork production would have caused a doubling of pork prices over the reporting period. Finally, USDA’s new numbers reflect a change from past estimates when the department largely relied on MOA estimates. For example, the new USDA numbers show a large downward revision of final 2006 pork production estimates from 51.972 million metric tons (114.5 billion pounds) to 45.825 million metric tons (101 billion pounds).
Recognizing the difficulty of verifying pork production in a situation where nearly half of all production does not enter commercial channels, USMEF is in concurrence with USDA’s estimates.
“Estimating Chinese pork production has always been problematic because of the size of the sector, its dispersion throughout the country and the number of small household producers, but USDA’s latest estimates capture the dynamics of the industry better than official Chinese numbers,” said Joel Haggard, senior VP of USMEF’s Asia Pacific Region.
USMEF notes that commodity analysts around the world have begun to pay greater attention to China’s pork numbers, as pork imports into the country have soared, and reports of overseas pork purchases by the Chinese government last year rattled Chicago futures markets. USDA’s full update on China’s livestock industry can be found online.
USDA estimates 2007 Chinese Pork Production Down by 9.2 Percent
USDA has published its official estimate of China’s 2007 pork production, when blue ear disease, torrid economic growth, a trough in the hog cycle, and high feed prices combined to create havoc for China’s hog raising sector, the world’s largest. USDA-Beijing estimated that Chinese pork production dropped 9.2 percent from the 2006 level of 45.825 million metric tons (101 billion pounds), to 41.609 million metric tons (91.7 billion pounds). More significantly, USDA disagreed with the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture’s (MOA) official estimate that the 2007 pork production of 51.2 million metric tons (112.8 billion pounds) had amounted to only a 1.5 percent reduction from 2006 levels. USDA noted that it was unlikely that a 1.5 percent reduction in pork production would have caused a doubling of pork prices over the reporting period. Finally, USDA’s new numbers reflect a change from past estimates when the department largely relied on MOA estimates. For example, the new USDA numbers show a large downward revision of final 2006 pork production estimates from 51.972 million metric tons (114.5 billion pounds) to 45.825 million metric tons (101 billion pounds).
Recognizing the difficulty of verifying pork production in a situation where nearly half of all production does not enter commercial channels, USMEF is in concurrence with USDA’s estimates.
“Estimating Chinese pork production has always been problematic because of the size of the sector, its dispersion throughout the country and the number of small household producers, but USDA’s latest estimates capture the dynamics of the industry better than official Chinese numbers,” said Joel Haggard, senior VP of USMEF’s Asia Pacific Region.
USMEF notes that commodity analysts around the world have begun to pay greater attention to China’s pork numbers, as pork imports into the country have soared, and reports of overseas pork purchases by the Chinese government last year rattled Chicago futures markets. USDA’s full update on China’s livestock industry can be found online.