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United States
Promising Outlook For U.S. Pork Exports In Next Decade
The United States has become the world’s largest pork exporter, and is forecast to dominate the global pork market over the next 10 years, according to the latest Agricultural Outlook, produced each July by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
According to the report, the U.S. share of global pork exports will approach 30 percent by 2016, and one in every 3.4 pounds of pork traded in the world will originate from the United States. The past 15 years of record breaking U.S. pork exports have supported growth in the industry, and this trend is expected to continue through the next decade. Tremendous efficiency gains, resulting in a 55 percent increase in pork production per breeding hog over the past 15 years, helped position the U.S. industry as the leading global supplier.
International consumers have a growing preference for safe, consistent, high quality and affordable U.S. pork. U.S. pork producers understand the value of exports, as exports have grown from just 7 percent of production in 2000 to more than 15 percent today, and an anticipated 20 percent of production in 2016. The relatively weak U.S. dollar, especially compared to other major pork producing regions, has also stimulated demand for U.S. pork. The euro has been trading at record highs against the U.S. dollar, and similar situations exist with the Canadian dollar, Brazilian real and Chilean peso. U.S. currency depreciation is expected to continue in the near term.
The EU-27 is expected to be the second largest pork exporter, but Brazil’s exports are anticipated to have the fastest growth rate, and surpass the EU-27 exports in 2016. Disease status will be the largest variable in Brazil’s actual export growth. Brazil still faces FMD restrictions in its largest market, Russia. Brazil is expected to export more than 26 percent of its production by 2016, growing from 4.5 percent in 2000 and 23 percent in 2005, before FMD restrictions limited exports to 16 percent in 2006. Brazil is expected to occupy 18 percent of global pork export market share by 2016, with exports recovering to 2005 volume by 2009 and then increasing by an annual average of 8 percent from 2010 to 2016.
The EU-27 exports are expected to slow due to a number of factors affecting the community, including growth in domestic demand, rising feed and other input costs, costly environmental and animal welfare regulations and the relatively strong euro. EU-27 exports as a percent of production are expected to decline from 6 percent to 5 percent over the outlook period, while market share is expected to fall from 26 percent to 18 percent. The outlook shows EU-27 production and consumption remaining relatively stable, while the European Commission’s (EC) own estimates show production increasing just 3.2 percent from 2006 to 2014. The EC also expects per capita consumption to increase by just over 3 percent over the same time period.
Canadian exports in 2016 are expected to be 2 percent lower than 2006 export volume, with exports falling from 46 percent of production to 38 percent over the 10-year period. Canada’s share of global exports is expected to fall from 20 percent in 2006 to 15.6 percent in 2016 as the industry is not expected to recover from recent losses due to the strong Canadian dollar and high labor and feed costs.
Looking at imports, Japan is expected to remain the No. 1 pork-importing country, accounting for one-quarter of global pork imports. Other major importing countries are Russia at 11 percent, Mexico at 8 percent and South Korea at 5 percent of global pork exports.
United States
Promising Outlook For U.S. Pork Exports In Next Decade
The United States has become the world’s largest pork exporter, and is forecast to dominate the global pork market over the next 10 years, according to the latest Agricultural Outlook, produced each July by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
According to the report, the U.S. share of global pork exports will approach 30 percent by 2016, and one in every 3.4 pounds of pork traded in the world will originate from the United States. The past 15 years of record breaking U.S. pork exports have supported growth in the industry, and this trend is expected to continue through the next decade. Tremendous efficiency gains, resulting in a 55 percent increase in pork production per breeding hog over the past 15 years, helped position the U.S. industry as the leading global supplier.
International consumers have a growing preference for safe, consistent, high quality and affordable U.S. pork. U.S. pork producers understand the value of exports, as exports have grown from just 7 percent of production in 2000 to more than 15 percent today, and an anticipated 20 percent of production in 2016. The relatively weak U.S. dollar, especially compared to other major pork producing regions, has also stimulated demand for U.S. pork. The euro has been trading at record highs against the U.S. dollar, and similar situations exist with the Canadian dollar, Brazilian real and Chilean peso. U.S. currency depreciation is expected to continue in the near term.
The EU-27 is expected to be the second largest pork exporter, but Brazil’s exports are anticipated to have the fastest growth rate, and surpass the EU-27 exports in 2016. Disease status will be the largest variable in Brazil’s actual export growth. Brazil still faces FMD restrictions in its largest market, Russia. Brazil is expected to export more than 26 percent of its production by 2016, growing from 4.5 percent in 2000 and 23 percent in 2005, before FMD restrictions limited exports to 16 percent in 2006. Brazil is expected to occupy 18 percent of global pork export market share by 2016, with exports recovering to 2005 volume by 2009 and then increasing by an annual average of 8 percent from 2010 to 2016.
The EU-27 exports are expected to slow due to a number of factors affecting the community, including growth in domestic demand, rising feed and other input costs, costly environmental and animal welfare regulations and the relatively strong euro. EU-27 exports as a percent of production are expected to decline from 6 percent to 5 percent over the outlook period, while market share is expected to fall from 26 percent to 18 percent. The outlook shows EU-27 production and consumption remaining relatively stable, while the European Commission’s (EC) own estimates show production increasing just 3.2 percent from 2006 to 2014. The EC also expects per capita consumption to increase by just over 3 percent over the same time period.
Canadian exports in 2016 are expected to be 2 percent lower than 2006 export volume, with exports falling from 46 percent of production to 38 percent over the 10-year period. Canada’s share of global exports is expected to fall from 20 percent in 2006 to 15.6 percent in 2016 as the industry is not expected to recover from recent losses due to the strong Canadian dollar and high labor and feed costs.
Looking at imports, Japan is expected to remain the No. 1 pork-importing country, accounting for one-quarter of global pork imports. Other major importing countries are Russia at 11 percent, Mexico at 8 percent and South Korea at 5 percent of global pork exports.