Asia
Asia
Bird Flu Deflecting U.S. BSE Attention, May Help Regional Beef and Pork Demand
The unfolding avian flu crisis in Asia is helping deflect media attention from the U.S. BSE investigation and in some areas is aiding renewed beef demand. Media reporting on bird flu intensified last week with major stories covering the Thai Prime Minister’s admission that his government had mishandled the outbreak, the expansion of bird flu affected countries to 10, and increasing human deaths from the highly virulent influenza strain.
Bird flu is likely to provide some support for pork and beef demand, as consumers shun poultry, and import bans on intra-regional poultry product trade lowers protein supplies in markets. Japan imports roughly 10 percent of its total poultry consumption from Thailand, over 175,000 tons in FY 2003. The Asian Wall Street Journal reports that import dependent foodservice giants McDonald’s, KFC, Yoshinoya and Skylark in Japan are reeling from that country’s ban on Thai poultry imports, as well as from direct or indirect fallout from the BSE case in the U.S. Japan also sources poultry from China, from which imports are now banned. In other countries such as Thailand, where bird flu culls have been the largest, consumers are avoiding poultry and foodservice operators are already reporting a surge in demand for beef and seafood.
According to economic analysts, the first signs of larger scale economic disruptions such as reduced flight and hotel bookings in the Asia region, are just starting to appear. Asian transportation stocks dove last week, although most expect that unless significantly more human cases of the virus appear, the outbreak is not expected to result in the severe dislocations that occurred during last spring’s SARS outbreak. To date, there have been no advisories warning against travel to affected regions. The Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) have issued no travel alerts or advisories for avian flu-infected areas. CDC advises travelers to countries in Asia with documented outbreaks to avoid poultry farms, contact with animals in live food markets and any surfaces that appear to be contaminated with feces from poultry or other animals. The WHO does not at present conclude that any processed poultry products (whole refrigerated or frozen carcasses and products derived from these) and eggs in or arriving from areas currently experiencing outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry pose a risk to public health.
As of January 29, bird flu had been reported in 10 Asian countries – Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Laos, Pakistan, Vietnam, Cambodia and China. China’s reporting of its first cases was disconcerting in that the presence of the disease, known as Avian influenza H5N1, was reported simultaneously on three properties hundreds of kilometers from each other. To date, there have been 10 confirmed human deaths from the disease. Hardest hit has been Vietnam, where six of the eight patients contracting the disease have died. Scientists have warned that humans have little immunity to the H5N1 strain, with some predicting that mortality rates could exceed 60 percent. Although the current strain of H5N1 appears to be contracted only by direct contact with infected birds, scientists fear that a mutation of the virus into a more virulent and transmissible strain could set off a more widespread and lethal pandemic.
Although the future impact of the bird flu outbreak on red meat demand and trade is unknown, continued media reporting of bird culls and human cases of the disease will almost certainly push up demand for beef and pork. Media reporting on bird flu throughout the region has already overshadowed U.S. BSE news, which has largely been absent from newspapers throughout Asia over the last week except some coverage in Japan and Korea.
“Bird flu reporting, the absence of media attention to BSE in the U.S., and cold temperatures over the lunar New Year helped beef demand over the last 10 days,” according to USMEF Vice President, Asia Pacific Joel Haggard. USMEF is aware of several retailers in Korea that are considering re-starting U.S. beef featuring, and sales among Hong Kong retailers and Guangzhou restaurants that did not remove U.S. beef from their menus and store shelves has revived.
Asian Governments Await BSE Report from International ExpertsAsian governments are awaiting the outcome of the report from the international experts BSE team in the U.S. before contemplating changes in their U.S. beef import bans, according to USMEF’s interpretation of comments made by USDA officials who traveled to Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Korea, Hong Kong and Thailand last week. The USDA team, headed by Undersecretary J.B. Penn, met key government decision makers last week in an effort to revive trade and seek more information on what conditions importing countries might impose as prerequisites to re-allowing U.S. beef trade. The team also updated governments on the status of the U.S. BSE situation, noting that the epidemiological investigation is nearing an end. It is believed that besides Japan, which is still publicly stating that the U.S. must test all cattle whose beef is shipped to Japan, Korean, Hong Kong and Thai authorities have not presented USDA with specific requirements for restarting trade. USDA has told USMEF that governments last week all expressed a keen interest in reviewing the report of the international experts team. USMEF is trying to assess which markets may be more disposed to move more quickly to allow imports should USDA satisfy importing governments’ demands to demonstrate that U.S. beef is safe. “How markets re-open and when, will influence the decision of other markets in the Asian region. Governments in Asian are watching how their neighbors react,” according to Haggard.
Asia
Bird Flu Deflecting U.S. BSE Attention, May Help Regional Beef and Pork Demand
The unfolding avian flu crisis in Asia is helping deflect media attention from the U.S. BSE investigation and in some areas is aiding renewed beef demand. Media reporting on bird flu intensified last week with major stories covering the Thai Prime Minister’s admission that his government had mishandled the outbreak, the expansion of bird flu affected countries to 10, and increasing human deaths from the highly virulent influenza strain.
Bird flu is likely to provide some support for pork and beef demand, as consumers shun poultry, and import bans on intra-regional poultry product trade lowers protein supplies in markets. Japan imports roughly 10 percent of its total poultry consumption from Thailand, over 175,000 tons in FY 2003. The Asian Wall Street Journal reports that import dependent foodservice giants McDonald’s, KFC, Yoshinoya and Skylark in Japan are reeling from that country’s ban on Thai poultry imports, as well as from direct or indirect fallout from the BSE case in the U.S. Japan also sources poultry from China, from which imports are now banned. In other countries such as Thailand, where bird flu culls have been the largest, consumers are avoiding poultry and foodservice operators are already reporting a surge in demand for beef and seafood.
According to economic analysts, the first signs of larger scale economic disruptions such as reduced flight and hotel bookings in the Asia region, are just starting to appear. Asian transportation stocks dove last week, although most expect that unless significantly more human cases of the virus appear, the outbreak is not expected to result in the severe dislocations that occurred during last spring’s SARS outbreak. To date, there have been no advisories warning against travel to affected regions. The Centers For Disease Control And Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) have issued no travel alerts or advisories for avian flu-infected areas. CDC advises travelers to countries in Asia with documented outbreaks to avoid poultry farms, contact with animals in live food markets and any surfaces that appear to be contaminated with feces from poultry or other animals. The WHO does not at present conclude that any processed poultry products (whole refrigerated or frozen carcasses and products derived from these) and eggs in or arriving from areas currently experiencing outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry pose a risk to public health.
As of January 29, bird flu had been reported in 10 Asian countries – Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Laos, Pakistan, Vietnam, Cambodia and China. China’s reporting of its first cases was disconcerting in that the presence of the disease, known as Avian influenza H5N1, was reported simultaneously on three properties hundreds of kilometers from each other. To date, there have been 10 confirmed human deaths from the disease. Hardest hit has been Vietnam, where six of the eight patients contracting the disease have died. Scientists have warned that humans have little immunity to the H5N1 strain, with some predicting that mortality rates could exceed 60 percent. Although the current strain of H5N1 appears to be contracted only by direct contact with infected birds, scientists fear that a mutation of the virus into a more virulent and transmissible strain could set off a more widespread and lethal pandemic.
Although the future impact of the bird flu outbreak on red meat demand and trade is unknown, continued media reporting of bird culls and human cases of the disease will almost certainly push up demand for beef and pork. Media reporting on bird flu throughout the region has already overshadowed U.S. BSE news, which has largely been absent from newspapers throughout Asia over the last week except some coverage in Japan and Korea.
“Bird flu reporting, the absence of media attention to BSE in the U.S., and cold temperatures over the lunar New Year helped beef demand over the last 10 days,” according to USMEF Vice President, Asia Pacific Joel Haggard. USMEF is aware of several retailers in Korea that are considering re-starting U.S. beef featuring, and sales among Hong Kong retailers and Guangzhou restaurants that did not remove U.S. beef from their menus and store shelves has revived.
Asian Governments Await BSE Report from International ExpertsAsian governments are awaiting the outcome of the report from the international experts BSE team in the U.S. before contemplating changes in their U.S. beef import bans, according to USMEF’s interpretation of comments made by USDA officials who traveled to Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Korea, Hong Kong and Thailand last week. The USDA team, headed by Undersecretary J.B. Penn, met key government decision makers last week in an effort to revive trade and seek more information on what conditions importing countries might impose as prerequisites to re-allowing U.S. beef trade. The team also updated governments on the status of the U.S. BSE situation, noting that the epidemiological investigation is nearing an end. It is believed that besides Japan, which is still publicly stating that the U.S. must test all cattle whose beef is shipped to Japan, Korean, Hong Kong and Thai authorities have not presented USDA with specific requirements for restarting trade. USDA has told USMEF that governments last week all expressed a keen interest in reviewing the report of the international experts team. USMEF is trying to assess which markets may be more disposed to move more quickly to allow imports should USDA satisfy importing governments’ demands to demonstrate that U.S. beef is safe. “How markets re-open and when, will influence the decision of other markets in the Asian region. Governments in Asian are watching how their neighbors react,” according to Haggard.